Soufiane Bouarfa, Yanjun Wang
Email: info@delftaviation.com
COVID-19 has decimated the aviation sector by every measure. The falloff in traffic is unprecedented, the financial pressures are growing, and recovery to previous traffic levels might take several months. This blog post examines from a multi-stakeholder perspective the unprecedented impacts of the global pandemic COVID-19 on the aviation sector. An impact assessment is provided for airlines, airports, and ANSPs. Based on the assessment, A comprehensive recovery framework is proposed for each stakeholder to restore passenger confidence and prepare for operations in the new normal. The proposed measures offer guidelines to the three aviation stakeholders in the pre-vaccine phase. These guidelines provide new opportunities towards achieving a seamless passenger experience and transforming the air transportation system from a virus spreader to a virus filter through implementing state-of-the-art technologies and operating at high health standards. The paper may be complemented with new scientific evidence and information when it becomes available.
The aviation industry is regularly subject to pandemic episodes that can lead to important disruptions. At the height of previous outbreaks, SARS was the most serious pandemic impacting traffic volumes and resulting in $6 billion lost revenues for Asia-Pacific airlines [3]. Whilst the industry has proven resilient to previous pandemic episodes (Figure 1), it’s undeniable that the effects of COVID-19 on global aviation will be much more severe than any of the previous disruptions we have encountered before including the Gulf War, 9/11, the 2008 Global Recession, and Eyjafjallajökull Eruption in 2010.
COVID-19 has decimated the aviation sector by every measure. According to a recent IATA forecast [4], the industry passenger revenues could plummet $252 billion or 44% below 2019’s levels. The impact is thus likely to be far worse than what was seen in previous disruptions, not only for airlines but also for other aviation stakeholders. The current disruption created an almost complete shutdown of air transport operations with more than 90% capacity reduction. This can easily lead to the bankruptcy of several airlines as it was recently the case for LATAM [34].
Figure 1: Effect of past outbreaks on aviation (Source: IATA [3])
In a recent webinar [11], Rohit Talwar from Fast Future highlighted four possible scenarios (Figure 2) for aviation in the coming two years: Scenario 1 – Survival of the safest: This scenario is characterized by negative growth in the next two years, and minimum collaboration between aviation stakeholders. Stakeholders that survive would be those that can demonstrate the safest travel experience. Scenario 2 – Love in a cold climate: Under this scenario, aviation stakeholders coordinate and act together in the value chain, but the economy is not recovering. Despite having good safety collaboration mechanism, the impact on revenues and overall performance is low. Scenario 3 – Hope and glory: The economy recovers but the industry struggles in collaborations and following an integrated approach. Some stakeholders do relatively well and others don’t. Scenario 4 – Sealed and secure: Aviation stakeholders decide to seal the passenger experience starting from the booking (e.g. digital passport, digital visa, medical certificate e.g. antibody test or antigen test, vaccination proof). Passengers will feel more comfortable travelling with others who got similar certificates. Under this scenario, cabins can be reconfigured for different groups, and new partnerships will be established with new stakeholders such as hotels and car rental companies.
The speed of recovery will depend on several factors. First, it will depend on whether travel restrictions by states are lifted, and whether a 14 days quarantine is required upon arrival. To facilitate this, coordination is required between governments and aviation stakeholders [14]. Second it will depend on passenger confidence in flight which has reached an unpreceded lower level [49]. Therefore, efforts of the aviation community should be geared towards restoring passenger confidence in collaboration with health organizations. A good example of this is the recent collaboration between the European Union Aviation Safety Agency (EASA) and the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) in publishing operational guidelines for the management of air passengers and aviation staff [23]. Third, recovery will depend on the status of the economy. Past recessions have shown that passengers are cautious with their spending. And finally, recovery will depend on the development of a vaccine or treatment for COVID-19 in combination with a reliable and scalable test which can rapidly detect infected passengers. A vaccine will ultimately be the key to recovery, however many medical experts argue that a vaccine cannot be reasonably expected until the end of 2021 because of the required phase 2 and 3 trials and global distribution [41].
Figure 2: Four possible scenarios in the next two years [11]
A coordinated approach can often make a significant difference and influence the recovery curve (See Figure 3). The aviation community has informally classified different types of recoveries which are in line with the shapes of an economic recession: V-shaped which is a brief period of sharp economic decline followed by quick/smooth recovery; U-shaped which is a prolonged contract and muted recovery to trend line growth; L-shaped (depression) which is characterized by a steep drop followed by a flat line with possibility of not returning to trend line growth; and a W-shaped: which is characterized by ups and downs patterns before full recovery. Recently, ICAO conducted an extensive analysis where a comparison was made between the impact of a V-shaped recovery versus a U-shaped recovery [20]. Table 1 summarizes the findings for both domestic and international flights. The incentives of a V-shaped recovery are very clear.
Table 1: Impact of a V-shaped and U-shaped recovery on domestic and international flights
Figure 3: Importance of a coordinated approach. EUROCONTROL draft traffic scenarios (base year 2019). The coordinated approach envisages a loss of 45% flights (5 million) in 2020 compared to 57% of flights (6,2 million) with the uncoordinated approach [37].
What measures have been proposed so far?
Aviation stakeholders have recently proposed various measures and guidelines to recover from the COVID-19 crisis. For Airlines, perhaps the CEO speech of Air Canada is representative of the measures taken by several airlines. In the same vein, the European Regions Airline Association (ERA) has recently published several measures [44] to ensure the safety of passengers and airline staff. Among these measures are the use of face masks during the entire travel journey, the redesign of boarding/disembarkation and security processes, and cleaning and disinfection. IATA outlines a “layered” biosecurity approach to restart passenger flights [16,17]. The approach is structured around the passenger journey as shown in table 2. Two game changers were identified by IATA to facilitate travel efficiency in the pre-vaccine phase. These include COVID-19 testing and immunity passports. The former should be accurate and scalable, and would create a safe environment that would reassure travellers and governments. The latter would support segregating risk travellers.
Table 2: IATA proposed changes to restart flights in the pre-vaccine phase [16,17]
For Airports, ACI has recently published an extensive report [46] which provides guidelines across different areas of airport management. The report analyses the impact of COVID-19 on various key performance areas such as safety and capacity and proposes mitigation actions. For instance, the report does not recommend health screening measures at the airport as these could create queues which would be counterproductive. Another post published on the ACI website proposes protective measures [43] that airports can take against COVID-19. These measures include passenger flow management, automation, sanitization, implementation of touchless technologies, and filtering indoor air quality. For ANSPs, CANSO has recently published a set of guidelines [33] for organizations operating in the air traffic management industry. These guidelines have two main goals. The first goal aims at preventing the infection of essential staff and includes measures such as cleaning and disinfection, social distancing, limiting facility access to essential staff only, and what to do in case a staff gets infected. The second goal aims at ensuring business continuity and includes measures to continue training of ATCos to maintain their skills, requesting extension of their medical certificates, adapting rosters to mitigate the effects of COVID-19, and doing other activities remotely whenever possible. In addition, several initiatives were launched recently to bring the aviation community closer to learn from each other and discuss best practices to respond to the crisis. Among these initiatives is the Flight Safety Foundation [40] and Fast Future [11] webinar series which organized focused webinars with Airlines ANSPs, Regulators, the Aviation Medical community, and other organizations.
This article elaborates further on the proposed measures using recent scientific evidences and integrate them into a holistic framework for the three aviation stakeholders: airlines, airports, and ANSPs.
Aviation Stakeholders and their goals
Bouarfa and Blom [29] provide a detailed overview of aviation stakeholders at various hierarchical levels and identify their objectives in relation to various Key Performance Areas. In this paper, we extend our stakeholder model with medical organizations, with whom the aviation community need to build deep relationships to monitor medical developments and use expert guidelines to control the pandemics. In addition, the authors propose to add health as an additional key performance area to the existing KPAs like safety, capacity, economy, and environment.
- Health Organizations: The aviation community has been collaborating with the medical community for many years. Medical doctors play a vital role in assessing the health of air traffic controllers, pilots, and cabin crew. However, with the COVID-19 crisis in mind, there is a need to go beyond this traditional collaboration and work together with more organizations that are specialized in pandemics prevention and disease control. Such collaborations will accelerate the design of evidence-based protocols and smart regulations for the aviation sector.
- Airlines: The main goal of an airline is to satisfy the customer need by providing the highest standards of quality and safety. Kemp and Dwyer [30] analysed 50 mission statements of airlines and found that the most focus is on customers, products/services, and market.
- Airports: The main goal of an airport is to provide, operate, and maintain air transportation facilities to meet the air transportation and economic development needs of its customers.
- ANSPs: The main goal of an ANSP is to manage the flow of traffic safely and efficiently 24/7 in the air in a dedicated airspace or in the ground. Dangerous situations should be identified in time for recovery, and safety levels must be maintained under abnormal circumstances (abnormal weather conditions, system failure, etc.).
- Passengers: Passengers are airline customers whose goal is to reach their destination without delays or being charged an unaffordable price
- Professional Associations: An association represents key stakeholders such as airlines, pilots, ANSPs, controllers, or airports at different levels, and promote their interests in terms of different areas such as economy and capacity. Examples of these associations include CANSO, IATA, ACI, IFATCA, AEA, ERA, IACA, IFALPA, IOPA, and ECA.
- Regulators: For regulators, the most important goal is the safety of passengers and people over-flown by aircraft. This goal is strict, in a way that aviation authorities will not allow the use of the ATM concept if safety levels are below the target level of safety [31]. Usually, countries transfer this responsibility to an organization of which the rule is to monitor activities, perform licensing, and ensure compliance with safety regulations.
- Original Equipment Manufacturers: OEMs include companies that manufacture aircraft. The two major generalist companies are Airbus and Boeing. Specialist aircraft manufacturers include Bombardier, Embraer, Dassault Aviation, and Sukhoi. Other OEMs include Tier 1 and suppliers of engines and other equipment and Tier 2 suppliers.
- Aeronautical Suppliers: Aeronautical suppliers play an important role in the air transport industry since they develop concepts and technologies for various actors such as aircraft manufacturers (Figure 4), ANSPs, aircraft operators, and airports with the purpose to deliver safer and efficient air transport services. Examples of suppliers include avionics suppliers, and ATM infrastructure providers.
- States: A state weighs up different interests and invests in the future in line with the public good, and expert knowledge.
- Scientific Institutes: A scientific institute conducts R&D activities that support the evolution of the air transport system at different levels.
While the COVID-19 crisis has affected all aviation stakeholders, the scope of this paper will only focus on airlines, airports, and ANSPs.
Figure 4: Examples of the Boeing 737 Max suppliers. A reduction in aircraft orders can significantly affect various suppliers.
Impact Assessment for airlines
Airlines are a key component of the air transportation system. Their goal is to satisfy the customer need by providing the highest standards of quality and safety.
The COVID-19 crisis has affected airlines in many ways. To better understand this impact, this section conducts an analysis from different angles.
Flight Traffic: The global aviation shutdown is unprecedented. A reduction in traffic means less revenue passenger kilometre. Several airlines have announced that they are at risk of bankruptcy due to the unexpected number of cancellations and international travel bans. Globally, capacity has been cut by 70% (See Table 3). Airlines such as Lufthansa, Iberia, Singapore Airlines, and Ryanair have seen their air capacity fall by more than 70% [7]. Many airlines have suspended their operations, and for many the collapse could be only a matter of weeks away as they face challenges accessing liquidity and their cash reserves are running down. Premium airlines such as such as Singapore Airlines recently announced their first ever net loss in their 48-year history [36]. In addition, many airline jobs are being lost as it was recently the case for Air Canada with 20000 workers laid off [35].
Table 3: Global scheduled flights change (extracted from AOG dataset [6])
Empty Seat Policy: Airlines will continue to be affected before a vaccine is available, because flying is not at all compatible with social distancing. Some airlines announced that they will leave the middle seats unoccupied, however this could lead to a significant increase of flight tickets prices in the long term compared with pre-crisis levels. IATA is opposing any regulation that would require airlines to leave the middle seat empty [5], arguing that such a measure would significantly affect airline economic prospects and that the practice has not been proven to reduce the risk of infection on-bard. According to IATA [5], under such a policy, only 4 out of 122 airlines analysed would be able to operate profitably. The empty middle seat policy would require airlines to operate at 62% load factor. In 2019, carriers needed load factors of 77% to break even.
Corporate Travel: it is expected that corporate travel will decrease during the pandemic for both short-haul and long-haul. A key contributing factor is the acceleration of digitization initiatives at various organizations. Meetings can now easily be conducted with modern videoconferencing tools such as Zoom and Teams, and electronic document sharing platforms. More employees are becoming more comfortable with virtual interactions instead of face-to-face meetings. This also provide businesses the opportunity to save on travelling costs and reduce their impact on the environment. The decrease in corporate travel will be even more evident if the economy does not recover and contracts in various sectors are terminated.
Leisure Travel: While it is very difficult to predict what travel demand will look like once the restrictions are lifted, it is expected that nothing will be the same as before at least until a widespread vaccine is available. There will be greater rationality in travel. Passengers will also be cautious about booking too far in advance because of the uncertainty about the virus waves and whether their airlines will still exist. Another important factor is confidence that insurance companies, many of which did not compensate passengers for the cancelled flights, are willing to cover COVID-19 cancellations or repatriation in case of infection. The fear from a new pandemic may also remain present in the mind of a lot of travellers.
State Interventions: Several European countries have announced support for airlines, which is helping companies to drastically reduce their employee costs. Similar support has been reported in the Middle East and Asian countries. However, not all support come without strings attached. For instance, in the recent 9 billion Euros bailout of Lufthansa [47], the German Government got a 20 per cent stake in the company, and the European Commission is currently negotiating with Germany to surrender the airline slots outs of concern the aid will give the carrier unfair advance over competitors. Similarly, Air France-KLM agreed to cut many domestic flights in favour of the “green” high speed train in exchange of a 7 billion euros state aid [48].
Hub and Spoke vs. Point to Point: it is expected that the point to point airline model will recover much faster than the hub and spoke model. This is because the latter relies on interconnections which will take more times to recover because governments might lift restrictions at different times. Aircraft orders: As the airlines will be recovering, they will look at their fleet and assess what is the most fuel-efficient aircraft to operate. Many airlines will look how to blend their fleet between aircraft that are owned, leased, and ordered. It is less likely that new aircraft will be purchased for the purpose of fleet growth at least until all grounded aircraft are back in the sky similar to pre-COVID-19 levels. Large aircraft such as the A380 will be retired earlier than planned as it was recently announced by Air France-KLM [18] and Emirates [19], and could be replaced in the future with new generation aircraft such as the A350 and B787.
Potential Recovery strategies Airlines
This section proposes various measures that airlines can take to expedite the recovery process. The measures are organized per different categories as shown in Table 4.
Table 4: Potential Recovery strategies for airlines
| Category | Potential Recovery Strategies for Airlines |
| Preparedness | Appoint a task force to monitor and ensure the implementation of preventive measures based on the latest developments and evidences. |
| Contingency Planning | Prepare protocols and improve risk management and resilience plans for this type of disruption taking different scenarios in mind (e.g. second wave of COVID-19, new pandemic, economic depression, etc.) |
| Passenger Awareness Campaign | Email passengers health safety promotion material with regard to physical distancing, respiratory etiquette, appropriate use of face masks, and hand hygiene before eating and after using the washroom, and also display it on entertainment systems onboard the aircraft (see examples in [21]).Provide information about air filtration to reassure passengers and increase their compliance.Passengers and staff should be informed that preventive measures such as wearing the face mask properly, keeping a good hygiene and a safe distance, when combined can significantly reduce the risk of infection, however there is no zero risk. |
| Passenger Flow Management | Inform passengers (in coordination with airports) about the ideal time to arrive to the airport to keep a minimum number of people in the terminalRequest passengers to limit their hand luggage to few simple items to speed up the boarding and disembarkation procedures and reduce the movements in the cabin. |
| Basic Health Protection | Inform staff and future passengers about travel restrictions for symptomatic individuals to prevent them from coming to the airport and give them an opportunity to rebook or refund their flight on the condition that they have a medical proof.Face masks may help reduce the spread of infections by reducing the number of respiratory droplets released by infected individuals who may not know they are infected [27]. Therefore, it is recommended that both passengers and crew use face masksduring the entire flight and the airport building. According to the latest guidelines [22, 45], face masks should be worn for a maximum of 3 hours. So, passengers need to be informed to bring enough for the entire journey. Exceptions can be made for babies and people who have a medical reason. Passengers should also be reminded through the health safety promotion material about the dos and don’ts e.g. how to wear the mask in the correct way? And how to safely dispose used masks? There should be also enough face masks available on-board just in case a passenger forgets, and face mask disposals should be available. Remind passengers to keep a safe distance everywhere (in the aircraft, outside, on the way home, etc. ) e.g. through a text message few hours before the flight.Provide a safety kit for passengers comprising face masks, a hand sanitizer, and wipes, and make additional sanitizers available in the washroom to reduce infection risk.Staff should be reminded that gloves should regularly be changed since some types of gloves deteriorate with alcohol-based solutions.On-board the AircraftAll magazines and printing materials should be removed.Cabin crew should ensure (to the extent possible) that passengers keep a safe distance from each other with the exceptions of passengers travelling together.Reduce on-board service to the minimum (only essential drinks and sealed food packages) to minimize contact between cabin crew and passengers. Passengers should be asked if they can pay contactless.Airline catering should provide a simplified and pre-packaged catering. Hot towel service should be stopped.Before handing the food to passengers, crew should disinfect meal packages e.g. using antimicrobial wipes or UV light.Apply procedures like handling cases of unruly passengers if passengers refuse to take the preventive measures during the flight, as this could endanger the flight safety and health security of other passengers and crew members [23]. |
| Innovation | On-board the aircraft: Introduce a queuing system for using the washroom to eliminate queue formation in the cabin |
| Cleaning and Disinfection | Clean and disinfect aircraft according to the latest standards [25] and explore techniques such germ-killing fog and electrostatic spraying followed by cleaning the surfaces.Use hospital-style HEPA filters when cabin air is recirculated and regularly replace them. |
| Health Certificate & Declaration | Request passengers to provide a recent medical certificate (e.g. one day before the flight) demonstrating they are healthy or fully recovered from COVID-19. Cooperate with authorities on this matter. E.g. Government agencies can collect health data of booked passengers in advance. Also request passengers to provide a statement about their COVID-19 status as part of their check-in and understand the consequences of false declarations. |
| Airline Staff | Prepare pilots to operate when operations recover (especially in relation to the recency requirement which requires pilots to have 3 take-offs and landings within the previous 90 days).Provide psychological help and promote wellbeing of staff. E.g. through stress management programmes [12]Implement physical distancing in airline offices such as the Operation Control Centre (OCC) and enhance hygiene measures and facility cleaning. Minimize staff contact and promote remote working if possible. Limit access to the OCC to essential staff only. Disinfect all workstations within the OCC and provide basic PPE for all staff. |
| Customer Retention | Extend passenger’s Frequent Flier Status and not expire their miles in loyalty programs.Coordinate with insurance companies on COVID-19 cancellations, health care protection abroad, and repatriation and clearly communicate it to customers |
| Airline Network | Increase the frequency of network redesign to a weekly basis instead of the usual 4-10 times per year. |
| Financial | Reduce cash-outs as much as possible and seek/negotiate government loans/ support.Consider M&A and consolidation opportunities.Resize and restructure the organization. |
Impact Assessment for Airports
Airports are a key component of the air transportation system. Their goal is to provide, operate, and maintain air transportation facilities to meet the air transportation and economic development needs of its customers.
The COVID-19 crisis has affected airports in many ways. To better understand this impact, this section conducts an analysis from different angles.
Passenger Traffic: According to a recent forecast by the Airport Council International, more than 4.6 billion passengers and $97 billion in revenue are expected to be lost in 2020 [8]. The prolonged impact of COVID-19 has led to worsening predictions for both traffic and revenue losses across all regions. On the 25th March 2020, almost all major airports in Europe showed a traffic decline of more than 50% compared to the same day in 2019 [9], most notably in Barcelona (-90%), Warsaw (-87%), and Rome (86%).
Weak points: Following 9/11, many airports around the world have been redesigned with security in mind. However, from a pandemic perspective, airport architecture suddenly became characterized by several weak points. Potential problems regarding proximity between passengers and airport staff at security checkpoints, immigration, boarding gates, and customs can easily lead to passenger jams. This could significantly increase the risk of community spread among passengers if the current airport processes remain the same (Figure 5).
Figure 5: Current boarding process
Airport Lounges: Lounge rooms are also expected to be affected as passengers might want to minimize their time at the airport. Where lounges once aimed for relaxation and enjoying a buffet, the expectation is that they will be cold areas with staff circulating with disinfectants.
Potential Recovery Strategies for Airports
This section proposes various measures that airports can take to expedite the recovery process. The measures are organized per different categories as shown in Table 5.
Table 5: Potential Recovery strategies for airports
| Category | Potential Recovery Strategies for Airports |
| Preparedness | Appoint a task force to monitor and ensure the implementation of preventive measures based on the latest developments and evidences. |
| Basic Health Protection | Thermal screening to detect feverish passengers and crew at airport entry points before check-in/ baggage drop-in or even before reaching the airport when possible (e.g. Parking garage). It should be noted that screening has limitations because many symptomatic persons do not have fever, or passengers can treat fever with medications. However, it may help dissuade ill passengers from travelling by air and enhance public confidence [26].Mandatory request for all passengers and staff to wear face masks all time in the airport building. Exceptions can be made for instance at border control or for babies and people who have a medical reason.Remind passengers to have enough face masks for the entire journey and have selling points where passengers can buy them.Remind passengers to keep a safe distance in the terminal building, in the aircraft, and everywhere else.Display health safety promotion material on electronic displays in various languages (see examples in [21]) e.g. remind passengers and staff to avoid touching surfaces in the terminal building as much as possible. |
| Airport Staff | Install protective screens in interaction points between passengers and airport staff to protect staff from inhaling droplets of passengers. E.g. border control, check-in counters, ticketing, etc.Equip vulnerable staff such as security check agents, cleaning staff, passenger assistants, thermal screening staff, etc with PPE including face shields, medical face masks, gloves, uniforms or protection suits [23]. Staff should be reminded that gloves should regularly be changed since some types of gloves deteriorate with alcohol-based solutions.Provide psychological help and promote wellbeing of staff. E.g. through stress management programmes [12]. |
| Airport Facilities | Extend or redesign gate space if possible and introduce signs and floor markings to help passengers keep a safe distance of 1,5 metres. This distance was introduced because studies show that large respiratory droplets can travel 1,5 m for normal speech and up to 2 meters when coughing [28]. Non-medical face masks do not offer a consistent level of protection when the distance is below this threshold [23]. When possible, airports should introduce separate opposite lanes to reduce the number of passengers crossing each other. Apply the same principle in washrooms.Air ventilation: Minimize air recirculation at the airport building and use fresh air in accordance with indoor ventilation guidelines [24]. Increase air ventilation rate, use HEPA filters, and increase the frequency of their replacement or keep windows open in case of old airport buildings. |
| Cleaning and Disinfection | Intensive cleaning and disinfection of airport facilities including gates, tables, chairs, elevator buttons, handles and seats of automated people movers, check-in counters, waiting area in the terminal, duty free shops, baggage trolleys, lounges, buses, floor, washrooms, interview booths, all frequently touched surfaces, and more. Self-sanitizing solutions need also to be explored e.g. a self-sanitizing door handles.Plastic security trays are frequently contaminated with viruses and therefore should be cleaned extensively [21]. Contactless hand sanitizers should be placed after the security exit and other passenger dense airport areas. Disposals for face masks should be made available in the airport building with clear biohazard sign.Introduce full body disinfection channel facilities for the sanitisation of passengers and staff with antimicrobial coating. |
| Passenger Flow Management | Boarding/ Disembarking Process: Redesign boarding and disembarkation processes to increase space-per-passenger ratio and reduce contact. E.g. in case buses are used, the number of buses should be increased so that each bus can accommodate a low number of passengers. In case of boarding by bridge, passengers should be boarded by rows or seat location (e.g. window seat first) to reduce interaction between passengers. The same principle can be applied in disembarkation. Airports can also implement disinfection tunnels, carpets, etc not only at the gate but at every entry point.Reduce security and immigration queues e.g. through using mobile applications. E.g. Mobile phone location data can be used to streamline arrival processes to ensure a continuous movement of passengers.If possible, increase the space for passengers. E.g. through expanding the airport landside vertically.Move some processes beyond the usual airport area to increase space. E.g. re-purpose parking garages either at the airport or outside as thermal scanning centres and early processing of passengers to take the necessary isolation measures.Baggage Claim: Passengers should be reminded to keep their face mask and a safe distance as much as possible and leave the terminal building immediately after collecting their baggage.Redesign the boarding process to minimize the infection risk: e.g. check passengers from their hotels or home as it is the case in some few airportsRestrict access to terminal building to airport/airline staff and passengers only to reduce the number of people at the airport. Exceptions can be made to people accompanying minors or passengers with reduced mobility.Refuse access to passengers and staff not adhering to the preventive measures. |
| Airside | Inspect runways/taxiway and areas nearby for the presence of wildlife before resuming to normal operations.Adapt the schedule of ground support staff to match the reduced demand for maintenance, fuelling, and logistics. E.g. reduce working hours to maintain continuity of operations and increase inspections of grounded aircraft to increase safety in the future. |
| Innovation/ Automation | Innovations in Check-in and Boarding/Disembarkation Process: Deploy robots to provide real-time information to passengers and reduce face-to-face interaction with airport staff.Invest in Biometrics which is already used at some airports but in a fragmented way. Especially the facial recognition variant can enable passengers to speed up through the boarding process, and through border control and customs all without the need of their boarding pass, ID, or credit card. The fingerprint variant should not be used. This can make the travel experience seamless and much safer.Invest in self-service check-in solutions to reduce the queues. Passengers can check their own luggage. At some airports, passengers with and without luggage are requested to report at the counter to check their visa. This should not be the case. Also, where possible touching of surfaces should be minimized using other alternatives (Mobile-Check in).Invest in technologies to accelerate baggage processing and reducing the queue.Deploy small automated vehicles for people with reduced mobility. Innovations in Security: Change to a non-intrusive “flow-through” security screening using advanced thermal technology in combination with biometrics. The need for passenger to separately scan their shoes, phones, toiletries, and other personal items will no longer be needed.Use AI X-rays to help security agents automatically detect prohibited items. Innovation in Cleaning and Disinfection: Deployment of autonomous cleaning robots equipped with UV light sterilisers and air sterilisers in toilets and key areas in the terminal building. E.g. as it is the case in Changi and Hong Kong airports.Using biosensors to detect the presence of pathogens. Big data: Use big data to identify those at risk e.g. using travel history and mobile location. Health Screening: Invest in health screening technologies. |
| Security | Adapt security procedures to detect prohibited items hidden under PPEs. |
| Coordination | Airport/Airlines: Work with airlines to increase the time between arrival and departure to have enough time to conduct appropriate measures |
| Financial | Gradually open non-essential airport services with the condition that physical distancing and hygiene requirements will be met.Coordinate with state and request support to preserve essential operations |
Impact Assessment for ANSPs
Air Navigation Service Providers (ANSPs) are a key component of the air transportation system. Their responsibility is to manage global air traffic in a safe and efficient manner.
The COVID-19 crisis has affected airports in many ways. To better understand this impact, this section conducts an analysis from different angles.
Traffic Reduction: Despite the low levels of traffic due to flight cancellations (e.g. Table 4 & Figure 6), ANSPs continued to provide their services for cargo, repatriation, and emergency flights. Because ANSP revenues depend on air traffic, ANSPs will face financial losses as airlines might delay the payment of ANS charges or even suspend them. Hence cost-cutting is inevitable. This in turn would affect the roll-out of projects aiming at maintaining and improving Communication Navigation and Surveillance systems infrastructure, improving the competencies of air traffic controllers, or deploying innovative approaches to airspace management. In addition, reduction of staff especially the senior ATCos is to be expected.
ATC Airline Charges: Several ANSPs have already provided some sort of relaxation measures to airspace users. For instance, EUROCONTROL has recently extended the latest deadlines for air traffic services charges incurred by airlines between February and May of 2020 into 2021 as airlines are currently facing difficulties. According to IATA estimates, the collective amount of charges would have reached 1.1 billion Euros [15].
Table 6: Comparison of Benelux Air Traffic Early May with last year [10]
| Country | Typical Daily Traffic | Since the lockdown |
| Netherlands | >3500 flights | Traffic is down with 87% |
| Belgium | >1750 flights | Traffic is down with 85% |
| Luxembourg | >200 | Traffic is down with 81% |
Figure 6: Comparison of Benelux Air Traffic Early May with last year [10]
Licensing of ATCos: A long period with low traffic demand could impact air traffic controller’s ability in the future to accommodate high peaks in traffic quickly. ATCos might not be able to maintain full situation awareness to timely detect conflicts and propose a resolution in their sector [32]. Many aviation experts agree that runway incursions for instance could be a significant hazard when operations resume [39]. One of the main contributing factors would be the “rusty” skills for Aerodrome personnel returning to work, and the lack of familiarity of flight crew caused by non-routine operations. Other contributing factors include the pressure on ATCo and traffic due to the reduced flow from the closed taxiways for parking aircraft, and the impact of parked aircraft on landing systems or tower visibility issues. This could lead to dangerous situations. From a regulatory perspective, reduced duty time for ATCos could lead to a licensing problem. If controllers do not meet the minimum time requirement on duty for continued currency, their license will be expired. In some other cases, licenses may expire simply because training programs were suspended, or medical testing was not conducted. Therefore, it is critical that ANSPs come with contingency measures to continue providing services during and after the COVID-19 crisis.
Limited capacity: Because of the COVID-19 disruption, a lower number of ATCos can be expected e.g. due to segregation of teams and social distancing, infection cases, or layoff. Therefore, ANSPs must be ready for a safe transition to normal operations. Competent ATCos must be in sufficient numbers to provide ATC services in a safe manner and reduce ATS incidents. In addition, all equipment should be up to date and ready for operational use and procedures should be in place to support the safe transition to normal operations.
Remote working: As in many other domains, the current crisis will accelerate digitization and open up new opportunities that can reduce operating costs in the long term and increase efficiency. Several ATCos have reported that they were able to validate operational concepts remotely for the first time. In addition, companies such as Micronav offer ATC simulation solutions to train staff remotely. An example is BEST Remote (Figure 7) which allows collaboration in various formats, connecting multiple ATC systems for joint simulation regardless of geographic location. With this solution, the ATCo training can be conduced without the need for the student and instructor to be at the same location.
Figure 7: MicroNav ATC simulation in the cloud can be accessed on different devices [38]
Potential Recovery Strategies for ANSPs
This section proposes various measures that ANSPs can take to expedite the recovery process. The measures are organized per different categories as shown in Table 7.
Table 7: Potential Recovery strategies for ANSPs
| Category | Potential Recovery Strategies for ANSPs |
| Preparedness | Appoint a task force to monitor and ensure the implementation of preventive measures based on the latest developments and evidences.Ensure that all equipment is up to date when normal ATC operations return to normal.Check the status of aerodromes facilities and CNS/ATM infrastructure. |
| Contingency Planning | Develop contingency plans for implementation in the event of another major disruption (e.g. second wave of COVID-19), or potential disruption of air traffic services, and establish a team to lead emergency management in coordination with other aviation stakeholders.Develop a recovery plan taking different future scenarios into considerations |
| ANSP Staff | .Organize special simulation training to emulate high traffic levels especially for novices.Provide psychological help and promote wellbeing of staff. E.g. through stress management programmes [12]. |
| Basic Health Protection | Prevent the infection of essential staff [33] through: Restricting visitors from accessing the facilities; Postponing non-essential training; Social distancing measures: and measuring temperature several times a day.Cleaning and disinfection: Enhance hygiene measures and clean facility and workstations, touchscreens, and tools used by ATCos. Extensive cleaning is required for facilities where employees tested positive.Adjust rosters of ATCos to guarantee the continuity of safe operations while minimizing health risks. Set-up separate teams of controllers.Implement physical distancing in air traffic control towers e.g. through increasing the space between ATC workstations. |
| Coordination | ANSP/Airlines: Implement User Preferred Routes (UPR) and relax ATC airline charges if possible.ANSP/ANSP: a) Share good operational practices with other ANSPs. b)Transfer duties to other ATC adjacent control towers if impacted by the virus. c) Data sharing initiatives among ANSPs on both the technology and R&D levels.Other Stakeholders: Collaborative decision making with other ANSPs (cross-border coordination), airlines, technology solution providers, and other stakeholders. Exchange of operational information through calls, web conferences, emails, and electronic data exchange. |
| Financial | Explore new sources of revenues e.g. soon urban airspace could be a new source of revenues with the increase of drone deliveries and urban mobility.Explore how to increase revenues through non-ANS services and products. |
| Innovation | Remote working: Explore the use of collaborative tools to validate operational concepts with controllers geographically distributed (either from home or other control centres). Current technology enables the participation of many controllers and can open a new world of validation options that were not possible before.Invest in technology that will increase efficiency and reduce operating costs in the long term. E.g. remote tower operations offer flexibility and ability to match supply with demand. AI is also an opportunity to improve efficiency at the strategic side. |
Concluding Remarks
COVID-19 will change many aspects of our lives and its impact will be for several years to come. In the pre-vaccine phase, there is no single measure that can mitigate the infection risk during the travel journey. However, combining the measures identified in this paper could be an effective approach of balancing the risk with the need to restart travel. This paper identified various measures ranging from contingency planning and basic health protection measures, through passenger flow management and health screening, up to innovation and automation. If the identified technologies are available at scale, air transport could transform from “virus spreader” to a “virus filter” by operating at very high standards [42]. This is important since many investigations around the world revealed that patient zero arrived by air.
There is no doubt that the lockdown will end, and air travel will rebound as this has been the trend for all previous outbreaks. Therefore, it is important for all stakeholders to ensure that flights will be accommodated safely and efficiently when air transport operations resume to normal. This crisis also provides an opportunity for stakeholders to think out of the box about technological solutions to provide a safe journey for passengers and embrace passenger health as a new KPA in addition to safety, capacity, sustainability, security, and cost-efficiency.
While various technological solutions exist, implementing them is often difficult as it requires approval and alignment of various stakeholders including regulators, airlines, airports, ground handlers, police, and customers. Therefore, to accelerate recovery, a true cross-border coordination between all these stakeholders is required as never seen before. Hence, the recovery of the aviation industry is going to be a collaborative effort from stakeholders including airlines, airports, regulators, and ANSPs as well as OEMs and the multitude of suppliers. Learning from each other, sharing best practices, expertise, and costs for developing new technologies and smart regulations among others could significantly reduce the impact of COVID-19 on the aviation sector. Working in silos will only delay the recovery.
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